"Real liberty is neither found in despotism or the extremes of democracy, but in moderate governments.
Alexander Hamilton

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

"Stunning" decline in NH's Working Age Population

A reader sent me a note about this report on WMUR "Stunning Decline in NH's Work Age Population Projected". Following are some of the slides presented in the report from the  NH Center for Public Policy presentation to the NH Coalition for Business and Education. ( click on The Changing Workforce). The county with the greatest projected decline in the working age population is our own Carroll County with a nearly 25% decline projected by 2030.
 In the purest statistical terms, the future workforce will shrink by simple virtue of the fact that the population is aging out past 64 faster than  they are being replaced by working age residents.
What does this all mean? This type of data can be very important as we plan for the future here in Moultonboro, both for the Village Vision and the new Master Plan.
 It's hard to accurately predict things 20 or  30 years out, but we need to pay close attention to the trends and plan accordingly.








11 comments:

Necessity is---No Longer. said...

Looks like Joe will have a field day feeding on this....

Hope supply and demand is still alive and well....BUT we have convinced about 1/3 of the country that work is obsolete. Live on the dole...

Not a Pretty Picture said...

Recent news story tell the story that college graduates are burdened with so much debt it takes them years to pay it back.

College loans makes it more difficult for students to buy cars, homes and other big ticket items. Add to that the poor job market and you have a recipe for disaster.

Those that can afford it are marrying and starting families later than generations before them. This does not bode well for the future.



Anonymous said...

The town fathers and Village Committee should be paying attention to these stats. Carroll County has the greatest projected decline in the working age population. This should not come as a surprise given our location and access to major routes. Unless a business is internet based or one that caters to an older population and tourists, it's tough for businesses to survive. That's just the reality of living in Moultonborough.

Joe Cormier/jcormier2@myfairpoint.net said...

Numbers don't lie ... but can be misleading ... especially if providede by a pseudo- or government agency!

Kind-a-like polls and surveys ... what do you mean ... agenda!

"The workforce is projected to decline" ... based on what! It already has ... thanks to an entitlement culture and government largess (freebees). Exclude in "workforce" those that could work, but won't.

Those that desparately need and want work, but can't get it ... give up. Are they counted ... like the gov't umemployment numbers. Sure ... unemployment is down ... because so many have given up looking for work. Doesn't mean jobs are up!

The 2010 to 2040 Graph shows 20 to 64 years, going from 800,000 to around 750,000. A 6.25% decrease in 30 years in a jumbled data element!

Why are 55 to 64 included? Tax law (retirement) treats these differently. The 65 number is only valid for Medicare (for now). Social Security starts at 66+, unless early retirement at 62 is taken. The same graph shows 65+ers going from about 190,000 to about 400,000. A 110.5% increase! The 190,000 gotta be too low. We've probably got that many in MoBo ... if you listen to "the kids".

The graph should be renamed the second leading out of the desert. Moses leading the boomers to the promise land ... bring them to MoBO ... they might already be here and more coming!

The graph maxes out at 900,000. NH's total population is somewhere around 1,000,000 to 1,500,000.

The graph has a line at 700,000 and says NH workforce. What is that supposed to mean? All of the 20-64 are above that line. Does that mean none of them are in the workforce?

The graph goes from 2010 to 2040. That's 30 more years. I'm 67 ... that'll put me at 97 ... why stop there ... I'm planning on longer. Why stop thrashing about on the blog at 97? I can be a hemmorhoid for at least that long.

Carroll county sees the biggest decline in size of working age workforce -24.4%. Why do the stats show from 2010-2030 when the first graph was 2010-2040?
I'm comfortably retired. How many are not ... and will not be able to ever retire. Look out millenials!

Carroll county and MoBo will probably see the greatest increase in lakefront property be sold/bought ... ad infinitum ... relative to the other counties as well. I guess the Carroll county change in workforce is for MoBo to spend more time at the lake, with its shorefront.

"Only three states are less diverse than NH" ... and we like it that way! Define diverse ... in relation to its citizen's wants and desires!

Hispanic labor force growth ... No kidding!! I'm glad we have the folks that come up here(no mention of citizenship in the graphs)and tend to the motels and beautiful wall building and landscaping that our local business's hire. Can't get the millenials to work at it ... but the need is still there.

Just touching on poverty and education before I stifle.

"Poverty" .. that came up from Lawrence Mass. and Lowell, Mass. when entitlements were made easier to get? "Poverty" is a tear jerker word. "Welfare" elicits a different emotion. There should be safety net for those, in need of one.

Poverty that came over from foreign lands because Manchester and like cities were made gate cities.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/26/us/manchester-new-hampshire-seeks-halt-in-refugee-resettlement.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

Education ... let's spend 30-50K a year to produce some more advenced basket weavers.

Those college dropouts that want to start up tech companies can be entrepreneurs. Does that mean they have to learn French?

Doctors that may want to build health clinics to get money from those boomers, who want and can pay ... stay out?

Those darn tele-whatever folks that may provide jobs to the millenials ... stay out?

What is meant by workforce?

Mt. Rattler said...

Try getting a kid ( age 19-26) to come work at a decent hourly wage that is'nt addicted to his damn IPhone, I know moving rock isn't the most glorious thing for a young person to do, but I can see why people "import" help sometimes.....even though I don't particularly agree with the idea. Amazing how much work IS out there for someone actually willing to break a sweat. But it's the times I guese. Easier to fein the notion of "ain't no work around" and collect that unemployment check, like I ran into last summer with a fella who didn't want to cash a check because the State would see that he had income coming in. He sure didn't last long. That's ok, more work for those that actually want to work. Heck.....am I complaining?

It DID Work... said...

Mt Rattler, we need to go back to what worked. My parents and grandparents MOVED around the country to find locations where their skills were in demand, and were very careful to check the school system before picking a town to live in.
Today people wait for the govt. To bring them a job. Time to recognize Moultonboro for what it is...exquisite lakefront wealthy retirement enclave. If not for the lake this would be like Bristol, Danbury, Cannan, Enfield, where there is no local money to be worked for.You need to work with the facts here...either mow lawns and provided needed services to our cash cow, or leave, or waste your life waiting for the Feds to fix it for you. They will never pay you enough to be " happy "

Hello Jane.. said...

WHERE is Citizen JANE on this? With her long time overview, and busy participation in town committees and issues, it would be good to hear from someone who can say - been there - done that. We may be plowing new ground here, for this generation, but it has been plowed before. I miss C J's wisdom.

Anonymous said...

On an encouraging note, our adult kids are debt-free college advanced degree grads, married to debt-free college advanced degree grads, parents to bright/healthy children, residing in their own homes, earning significant incomes. Seems to fly in the face of these reports? How? Sacrifice, discipline, mentoring, parenting, good teachers, coaches, friends, instilling confidence and a can-do attitude are all essential ingredients but county and state lines have little to do with it...go to the best school you can graduate from, regardless of where they're located and follow the work opportunities regardless of location. Politicians and bureaucrats spin gloom and doom stats to protect their own turf, their budgets, their insider deals and retirees look to get tasks done for the leanest prices available...none of which attract citizens, commerce or significant paying jobs. Our families will continue to vacation/visit our beautiful region but they, like an ever increasing number of our youth have left for greener pastures...absent leadership no graph will hold back this trend.

Anonymous said...

Not so fast on declaring there are no decent opportunities! There is Region 9 Technical School in Wolfeboro, attached to Kingswood High School. They have a fabulous program there for technical and vocational careers. Not everyone needs a college degree. This school is a golden opportunity for those who choose to sign on.

Who Achieved What ? said...

Posted At 9:09....congratulations on the three generations achieving the American Dream... We have a clan in Washington that says you had nothing to do with it tho. They say it is the result of " White Privilege " and it is unfair that you are so successful. The mandates they are trying, to " level the playing field " are very destructive to the American way, and must be exposed and debunked.
Giving everyone the same income stream will only hasten the demise of many who wait for the government to make things " fair ". This country has never seen such a great internal threat.

Apple a Day said...

Anonymous 11:03, you are right, Kingswood Technical School is a gem. Unfortunately not enough of our kids take advantage of the opportunities it offers. A shame parents aren't more proactive. Keep in mind there are a limited number of openings for Moultonborough students.