"Real liberty is neither found in despotism or the extremes of democracy, but in moderate governments.
Alexander Hamilton

Monday, September 22, 2014

What is New Hampshire 2014: NH Center for Public Policy

The New Hampshire Center for Public Policy publishes an "...annual survey of the major policy issues and critical questions shaping our future. The data explain where New Hampshire has been, forecast where it is heading, and explore how current trends and policy choices facing the state will affect the well-being of its citizens."

Here is a link to the full report.

Some highlights:

-Among the new trends shaping the “new” New Hampshire: an aging population; increasing racial and ethnic diversity; a shift away from the high-growth economic model of the past; and continued demand on the state budget for public services

-Compared to the rest of the country, New Hampshire’s population is older, less racially diverse,better educated, wealthier, and more likely to have moved here from another state. 

-The year 2020 will see the beginning of a shift in New Hampshire’s population towards the over- 65 population. By then, residents 65 years and older will account for nearly 20 percent of the  state population, up from 13.5 percent in 2010.

-Average age: New Hampshire: 41.5 years . United States: 37.3 years 

-Migration patterns have changed over the course of the Great Recession. Migration into New Hampshire has slowed considerably over the past decade, and the state is not expected to return to the past pattern of high growth for the foreseeable future. 

- much of New Hampshire’s housing industry (builders, planners, public officials, etc.) have yet to fully transition away from the mindset of the past, in which consistent rates of  high population growth was the norm. Instead, they need to prepare for a housing model defined  by less growth overall, more senior households, fewer young households, financially strained  first-time buyers, and changing lending standards. 

-School enrollment continues on a decade-long decline, and several measures of youth well-being in the state show worrisome trends, including rising levels of childhood  poverty. 

- As of the summer of 2014, New Hampshire lagged behind the nation and the rest of New  England in recovering jobs lost during the recession.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

The report contains some pretty dim forecasts for NH and the three northern areas in particular. Very low financial growth is predicted while the state budget will be pressured by Health and Human Services spending. Medicaid pays nursing home expenses for a significant portion of the patients and our population is aging quickly.

As the Blogger pointed out at the BOS meeting, the Town has many potential expensive projects being explored. The report indicated that with limited financial growth to pay for additional state spending, increased taxes are inevitable. The same is true for our town. The total assessment is only up slightly for 2014 and decreased for a few prior years. The Academy is well below capacity and there are still ongoing bond payments for the addition. The worst case scenario for a new gym would be 20 years of payments and a still declining younger population.

The timing for all of the major projects under consideration could not be worse.

Don't Help Me said...

Seems like our governments war on poverty has helped very few. Time we kept our money, and fight our own war against our poverty.

Joe Cormier/jcormier@myfairpoint.net said...

Why is it surprising there are on-going changes in demographics, economics, culture, jobs, health, health care, MoBo, NH, USA, World, etc. ...?

Haven't "boomers", and their impact on society, been already recognized ... for better or worse?

MoBo isn't going to fix the world's problems. Maybe a few camel jockeys will ... if the country doesn't find some leadership, that will lead.

Why not look at some of the data (not necessarily information)as a means to prepare, at least MoBo, for that "guerrilla coming down the track" (boomers).

Maybe, recognize and accept an aging, local population, as an asset, if viewed as potential job creators ... not jobs for themselves, but for what they'll need ... and have the money to pay for(not all but most).

One simple example is they'll need healthcare ... then create healthcare businesses ... e.g., tele-medicine businesses that don't exist, today in MoBo. That'll create a need for more "techies" for devices, broadband, software, etc.

We're a vacation destination ... then capitalize on it and stop worrying about the barns ... make them B&B's or restaurants ... or Gyms :)

Maybe we should change the lenses, we use to view the world, or at least MoBo. Perceived liabilities, may, in fact, be assets ... for MoBo anyway!

Seen any herds of camels lately?
We've all seen local turkeys!

Policy Blog:
http://www.policyblognh.org/

Anonymous said...

The War on Poverty worked fairly well until the Great Recession came along. The poverty rate in the late 1950s (another recession)was 40%, the same as today. The War on Poverty started in the mid-60s for those of you who don't know or remember. Is it possible there is a correlation between the lack of jobs or good jobs and poverty? It is fine that the few atop the inverted wealth pyramid say I can take care of myself but what about the other 90 odd percent of Americans? Wages for most Americans are still stuck in the 70s when adjusted for inflation. Prices and taxes meanwhile are not stuck in the 70s. The wealthy meanwhile have enjoyed a threefold increase in net worth again adjusted for inflation. I believe there is a current political claim floating about that states NH has suffered the worst exodus of manufacturing jobs to China of any state.

For Rational Planning said...

Mr. Cormier has it only partially correct. Yes the population of MoBo is aging and we should take advantage of that asset. Th

e problem with health and medical facilities and their expansion is the methodology for payment. Right now, providers are paid for visits at exorbitant rates that are paid by insurance that the seniors really don't pay for. The younger workers through payroll taxes finance Medicare that is running huge deficits. The solution is to discourage the typical oldster's weekly medical visit to her doctor for socializing because he or she is lonely and to have our medical personnel not take every patient who has a complaint examined by every specialist within a 50 mile radius. eta not create new entities to bankrupt our private and government medical instance system even more. Such is counterproductive.

As to Mr. Cormier's other suggestion about use of barns, etc for B & B's and restaurants, (1) we don't have the year round population base to support any more facilities and (2) the most problematic businesses going bankrupt according to the SBA are restaurants and hotels.

A better formula for economic improvement are getting T-1 lines so that small home businesses can communicate and thrive and not be prisoners to Time-Warner and Comcast based upon poorly negotiated contracts with municipalities including MoBo.

Moultonboro Blogger said...

A couple of points: We are a Board of Selectmen without authority to act individually. The BoS makes decisions and while we may disagree and vote differently on issues, in the end we are committed to support every decision made as board.
In response to Rational Planning, a few things: I would respectfully suggest you check your facts in regards to Medicare/Medicaid. Providers are definitely not paid "exorbitant" rates. Many seniors in fact do pay and some ( many?) have difficulty paying copays for care and medication not to mention the infamous "donut hole" where there is a gap in prescription coverage. I suspect that some seniors do seek medical care more frequently than the younger healthier population, but that is the price of being older. I am in favor of provider's making my health care decisions, not the government. He or she will recommend a specialist if I need one and not as you seem to feel to " have our medical personnel not take every patient who has a complaint examined by every specialist within a 50 mile radius". Who will decide who gets to see a specialist or not? Will only the wealthy or with private insurance have access to the full range of health care? Not acceptable to me.

Anonymous said...

With Moultonborough's low population, especially in the colder months when the majoirty of seniors go south, I doubt any health care provider would invest in this town.

Joe Cormier/jcormier2@myfairpoint.net said...

For Rational Planning said...

"... problem with health and medical facilities and their expansion is the methodology for payment ..."

You mean like Obamacare ... or those of us that have managed to hold onto our own policies?

T-1 line ...

"A better formula for economic improvement are getting T-1 lines so that small home businesses can communicate and thrive and not be prisoners to Time-Warner and Comcast based upon poorly negotiated contracts with municipalities including MoBo. "

Sure ... and then you can be a prisoner of "telephone" companies, that are becoming obsolete. The BoS are doing it right this time, and hiring an experienced telecommunications attorney to negotiate the new cable contract.

If you're referring to present/future communications demand ... you might want to rethink ...

http://www.megapath.com/data/ethernet/comparison/

http://computer.howstuffworks.com/question372.htm

Anonymous at 11:41 AM said...

"With Moultonborough's low population, especially in the colder months when the majoirty of seniors go south, I doubt any health care provider would invest in this town."

Precisely what tele-medicine can do for MoBo.

You're anywhere(in the world) and still be able to communicate with your doctor/Personal Care Physician, to get vital statistics, get data from your MD/PCP in MoBo, who is enjoying practicing medicine, while enjoying quality of life of MoBo, and the "Big Lake". The added benefit could be to "conference call" with specialists, if needed, on the same call!

Regarding restaurants etc. (said tongue-in-cheek). The market decides who succeeds or fails. Never, enough good restaurants, and some great diners ... MoBo is fortunate!

Can't wait for Center Harbor Diner(located in MoBo) to re-build, now that's torn down.

Let's give coupons to those broadband businesses owners who decide to do businesses in MoBo:)

A lot of businesses start and fail ... that never should have tried; not just restaurants

http://www.sba.gov/blogs/opening-and-running-restaurant-legal-and-regulatory-checklist

Eric Taussig said...

I read with interest "For Rational Planning", Moultonboro Blogger and Joe Cormier's comments.

I for one agree with the disfunction of medical services payments and costs and agree that Obamacare has not improved the situation. Medicare does work, albeit at an excess of cost, not that the costs paid either in taxes or co-pays goes to the correct over priced services and suppliers, which remains a real problem.

As for MoBo, just because we have a large number of older residents doesn't establish the population base for expanded medical facilities that probably aren't even needed considering that hospital facilities exist in Wolfeboro and Laconia, with satellite locations closer than those two towns.

I do agree with Rational Planning that what MoBo doesn't need are businesses that fail. All we need to do is look at past failure where facilities are weed strewn and become foreclosures.

While new technology may circumscribe T-1 lines, etc., for the time being that still provides the fastest service, which is what is needed in town for individual entrepreneurs .

We may end up investing in technology that becomes obsolete, but it is better to have the best current technology instead of waiting for nirvana. How many pieces of electronic equipment that is obsolete do you have in your attic, garage or basement that ultimately will find its way to the dump?? You need to keep investing- not just invest once. Permanence is obsolete in a society that is ever changing.

I agree with the premise to let business prove itself and survive, but please, business owners and planners, do the necessary research to insure that you have a fighting chance to succeed. Planning and survey information is necessary before your dream business can prosper. Lets not have the SBA and our banks end up holding the worthless notes from a business failure. We don't need another financial crisis and meltdown due to easy money given to any prospective business no matter how unlikely to succeed.

Finally as to MoBo's future - just as we need net neutrality, we need business neutrality from government that allows the private sector to develop the town within the limits of the zoning ordinance and Master Plan objectives.

Anonymous said...

Mr T Enjoy the Kiosks the TA wants on the Taylor property. Have a latte, and buy sunglasses. He has made it clear he wants commercial development on the Taylor land. Out of touch with the public.