"Real liberty is neither found in despotism or the extremes of democracy, but in moderate governments.
Alexander Hamilton

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Demographics

I still have some doubts that the 2010 census is accurate. 4,044 people with 3,700 or so registered voters does not seem quite right. There are 500 plus students in the school system. Doesn't add up. Nonetheless, we make decisions and plans based upon data. Did our population really shrink by 8% in ten years? When discussing marketing the town and how  to attract people to move here, what will our targets be? How old are the missing head counts? These are important questionsas we plan for the future.
The following is a comparison of some of the data from the 2000 and 2010 census:


(Vacant Housing Units are those that are seasonal/rental/occasional use)

How do we interpret this data? Probably best to only look at trends. A few are fairly clear even if the totals are incorrect: we are getting older. No surprise there. Also no surprise is the total under 19 years of age is getting smaller. That correlates to the declining school enrollment. The booming real estate market at the turn of the century is evidenced by the 12.30% increase in housing units and and the nearly 23% increase in "vacant" units. Much of that activity probably occurred between 2000 and 2008 with a significant drop through 2010.
The average household size was essentially unchanged between 2000 and 2010 at 2.33. There are 104 less households reported in 2010. Multiply that number times 2.33 and you get 242 people. The question I have is whether we truly lost 104 households or were they just not counted?  That additional number would make our population about 4,291 ( a 2.84% drop) a much more believable number. Can't prove it without doing another head count, but as I said in the beginning, we need to make decisions based upon data.
The US Census Bureau estimates New Hamphire's 2014 population at 1.327 million up from 1.317 million in 2010 and 1.240 million in 2000. As a state we are growing, but very slowly. Our growth rate is just 0.16% ranking 45th in the country.


5 comments:

$ $ $ $ said...

Attracting people to move here....A realator said his only hook for sales is " low tax Moultonboro ". And that realators from surrounding towns are successfully competing against him by describing the costly projects we have planned..
The " move to Moultonboro " sales pitch...if they are not smar enough to be here, we do not want them...

Anonymous said...

Alanta Georgia has 50,000 Somalians looking to relocate to areas with a strong welfare system. Just put the word out, they will come enmasse. We could populate the unused summer homes, and add students.

Joe Cormier/jcormier2@myfairpoint.net said...

NH Electric Co-Op lists 5877 the #served under "Township" .

It lists 5591 served, under 03254 "zip code".

I don't think the COOP distinguishes summer v. year round.

I guess the 20,000-30,000 summer folks number must be using a fixed number of "served"? How many of those are renters?

The "Lakes Region", Moultonborough being one of those towns, is attractive to vacation homes and retirees. Get used to it ... us Geezers are increasing, and most, will be coming from some place else.

The two years I lived in the Atlanta area, I was called a damned Yankee. It was explained to me , affectionately, that the difference between a Yankee and a damn Yankee was ... a damn Yankee was one who moved there. Damn renters anyone?

What does MoBo have to offer ... heavy industry ... Academia?

Get real!

Software types, or telecommuters, or telemedicine types, they might be enticed ... and they won't need low income housing. They might help our tradespeople stir the local economy ... and might even provide jobs/mentorships for the "kids".

NH Electric CoOp

https://ebill.nhec.com/woViewer/mapviewer.html?config=Outage+Web+Map



Rick Heath said...

A number of years ago ('05-'06) as I was working on several mailings of some political flyers, I was asked by a member of the supervisors of the checklist if I would share our mailing list info, to help cull their voter checklist. At the same time Rev. Ed Charest, a selectman at that time, would announce those 'new residents' each week at the BoS meetings. I often wondered then how the town of a resident moving away from that town would come to the attention of the BoS. To my knowledge there is no form or system in place to rectify that issue. Anyway, back to the checklist request. Since the group I was working with had paid a reasonable sum of money to get "cleaned" mailing lists I countered that perhaps the town would help with our expense in order to clean their lists. I was never contacted again about it and we did our mailings. I don't remember exact numbers of the returns on the various mailings but as we were only sending them to registered voters and we were still getting several back from supposed "clean" lists, that would indicate (my opinion only) that our registered voter list is inaccurate on the high side by some moving out without notice.
I would say that the issue of
"numbers" of population/voters/demographics/etc. might be a little bit of several issues. But this is one I think makes for one of the biggest reasons.
A reasonable way to cull the list of voters moved on is to send a letter with a return postcard to all registered voters say once every 3-4 years. The letter would explain the reason for the effort and would request that they return the postcard (presumably to the supervisors of the checklist) if they still were residents. Those not retuning the card in a given time frame would have to re-register which could be done at the polls at the next vote. Assuming that most of those not returning the postcard had moved on.

Anonymous said...

Rick, I am going from long term memory which might be faulty but I believe when I registered to vote in Moultonboro, I had to fill out a form listing my prior residence. I believe the clerk's office notifies the clerk in the prior town of the change of residence.