"Real liberty is neither found in despotism or the extremes of democracy, but in moderate governments.
Alexander Hamilton

Monday, September 26, 2016

State of New Hampshire, Regional Planning Commissions, County Population Projections, 2016, By Age and Sex.

The NH Office of Energy and Planning published their population projections last week for NH towns, cities and counties.The  "State of New Hampshire, Regional Planning Commissions, County Population Projections, 2016, By Age and Sex."The projections are for  state and county  for the period 2020 through 2040.
A few caveats. One from myself and one from the report ( below). Mine is that the basis or starting point is the 2010 census which indicated a 10% loss in Moultonboro's population. I am not convinced that those numbers were accurate, so the  "projection" from 2020 through 2040 may still be falsely low. I think we may need to wait until 2020 for the next census to get a firmer grip on where our population stands.

From the report: "Population projections are not predictions. The projection process attempts to identify probable assumptions and then extend those assumptions into the future, via a mathematical technique. By themselves, projections can serve as a general guide to likely future population trends. The projections can also serve as a beginning to alternative projection efforts. Data users are encouraged to use these projections to evaluate other projection efforts. While these projections extend out to 2040, it is important to keep in mind that the longer the forecast span, the greater the chance for errors. As in previous decades, OEP will revisit these projections and adjust the forecast depending on any changes in trend."

Overall, it is just one more piece of data useful in planning for the future, always keeping in mind that it is very tricky to predict trends on just about anything, that far out in the future.

Highlights:
  • By 2040, every New Hampshire county is projected to experience natural decline – an excess of deaths over births.  
  • The population age 65 and over will increase from 178,268 in 2010 to 408,522 in 2040, an increase of 230,200. 
  • The population age 85 and over will increase from 24,761 in 2010 to 85,121 in 2040, an increase of 60,300. 
  • The population under age 15 will decline from 232,182 in 2010 to 214,819 in 2040 and fall from 17.6 percent to 15.0 percent as a proportion of the total population.  


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